Will Prime Minister abandon welfare agenda?

The Yogi government of Uttar Pradesh has stopped free rations. It will affect over 15 crore people in the state. The decision has come at a time when the unemployment rate is high, and a sizeable section of the workforce has withdrawn from the job market and stopped searching for jobs. The most pathetic of it is the withdrawal of 2 crore women from the national workforce.

The simple condemnation of the decision will not do justice to the helpless people of the state that have stood by Yogi Adityanath in the most challenging period of his political career. During the last assembly election, it was not mere media speculation that he was to be dumped by the Modi-Shah duo. There were all indications of him being side-lined and finally removed after the state was won again by the BJP. The scheme would have been executed had the people not given him the size of the mandate he had received.

There are clear indications that the measure will soon be accompanied by cuts in other expenditures of the state in the social sector. One such cut has already been announced that would stop the grant given to poor sections of society to marry their daughters. This is a huge setback for the people living in a state like Uttar Pradesh, where the marriage of girls is a major burden both financially and socially. The meagre support of Rs 20,00 from the government was a great relief for those who could not afford to spend on things other than basic necessities.

Should the decision be termed a deceit on the part of the ruling regime in the state and Prime Minister Modi? After all, they ensured that their photos should be printed on the well-designed carry-bags containing rice and wheat distributed in free rations. Obviously, this was part of their election campaign. Since, institutions of the country have lost their force, the issue has not gained the required attention in the media or elsewhere, despite being raised by the opposition parties. Anyone can remember how both Yogi and Modi did not forget to mention the distribution of free rations as a benevolent measure of their rule. They never hesitated to mention the number of people benefitting from the scheme. By any means, this was an image-building measure to boost their electoral chances and an overt act of violating the People's Representation Act. They were not limiting their campaign to free rations, but also citing other welfare measures too.

This is the irony that most of these welfare programs including free rations to poor have been in existence for many years now and were launched by Congress or Janata governments. Even the program of helping poor families while marrying their daughters has been in existence since the eighties in Uttar Pradesh. It is in other states too. It has been there for many years now. However, the Modi regime has taken the lead in making it part of its high-pitched propaganda.

In the wake of the current debate on freebies, the measure is significant. The Prime Minister has already asserted that freebies are not in the interest of the nation and that they hamper the nation's becoming self-reliant. He is also trying to divide the people by saying that it is a burden on the taxpayers. His assertion may certainly win over a section of the middle class to his side. These are the people who have become estranged from the rest of society in recent years and show no concern for the poor and destitute. They are also the most communalized section of our society. This is true for the followers of all faiths. The Prime Minister will also find allies among TV anchors who will shout against freebies and provoke taxpayers.

Noted economist Prof Arun Kumar says that in 2018, 90 per cent of Indian households earned less than Rs 10,000 per month, implying that 90 per cent of families were poor. According to him, "During the pandemic, many of them lost incomes and were pauperized and forced to further reduce their consumption."

During the pandemic, Uttar Pradesh must have been at the top of the list in terms of poor people losing their jobs. We have seen how daily-wage earners were moving out on foot from Mumbai and other cities to reach their home villages in UP and Bihar. Obviously, the withdrawal of free rations will affect these wage earners most.

An important question comes to mind as to how Modi and Yogi will replace their welfare agenda with another agenda. Prime Minister Modi seems to have forgotten his most important economic agenda item of 2014, curbing black money. He does not even make any reply to comments on his promises to bring back black money stashed in Swiss banks and distribute it among the common people of the country.

Prof Arun Kumar stressed that curbing black money can change the economic scenario of the country. He says that "black incomes, currently estimated at above 60 per cent of GDP, could be brought back into the tax net." According to him, "India's fiscal crisis would also get resolved. This would eliminate borrowings and reduce the massive interest payments." He claims that this will shift the public sector from a deficit to a surplus.

Will Modi return to his earlier promise of curbing black money? He had promised in 2014 and had just forgotten it in 2019. He claimed that demonetization would eliminate black money, but his claims were proven false. The details of the currency notes returned to the Reserve Bank demonstrated that the measure had no effect on black money at all.

If Modi and Yogi have no economic agenda, what would be their agenda in 2024? This is not difficult to answer. They will go back to their old and tested agenda of Hindutva. In 2024, Modi will have an additional hand in Yogi Adityanath to campaign for aggressive communalism.

(The author is a senior journalist. He has experience of working with leading newspapers and electronic media including Deccan Herald, Sunday Guardian, Navbharat Times and Dainik Bhaskar. He writes on politics, society, environment and economy)